Thushani Suleka Madhubhashini Elepathage and Danling Tang
This study modeled the future trends of physical, chemical, and biological changes in the Sri Lankan ocean region after examining their trends, similarities, and differences. Many types of satellite data were used to extract oceanographic and atmosphere variables. The atmospheric and hydrologic interactions were identified and the time series expert modeler criteria were used to predict the future trend of each analysed variable. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to reveal patterns in the overall variability of ocean and atmosphere variables. In order to identify the relationship between the atmospheric and other affecting variables with the oceanographic variables, the canonical correlation analysis was conducted. Time series plots within the past 30 years clearly show Sea surface temperature, sea salt surface mass concentration, specific humidity, Carbon monoxide (CO) emission, Iron concentration, Ultra-violet (UV) aerosol index have clear increasing trends. Sulphate (SO4) extinction, SO4 column mass density, Sulphide (SO2) surface mass concentration, methane total column concentration, Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission have shown extreme increments within the past 15 years. According to the time series expert modeler criteria predictions, carbon dioxide (0.0058-mole fraction month-1), organic carbon surface mass concentration (1×10-13 kgm-3 month-1) has drastic increments in the future.
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